Adobe Data: Americans Will Use Black Friday to Stock Up on Basics

Online sales of basic apparel could rise 210% year-over-year during the five-day stretch from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, according to Adobe Research data published by The New York Times. Personal hygiene products are projected to climb 150%.

The figures signal a shift in what Black Friday is for. Pressured by a high cost of living and persistent inflation, Americans plan to use the discounts to stock their households with everyday items — personal hygiene products, cleaning supplies, basic clothing, baby articles and pet products — rather than splurge on gifts alone.

The five-day window runs from Thanksgiving on November 26 through Cyber Monday on November 30.

What is driving the stockpiling?

The behavior is a direct response to months of price increases across goods and services that have squeezed household budgets. The report also notes that the war involving Iran continues to pressure prices, particularly in sectors sensitive to energy and transport costs.

Consumers have changed how they watch promotions. Even gift buyers plan to prioritize cost-benefit and use the offers to buy products they would purchase anyway.

Brian McCarthy, retail strategy director at the consultancy Deloitte, told The New York Times: "Os consumidores, especialmente aqueles que buscam o melhor custo-benefício, tornaram-se muito atentos e sabem que esses períodos promocionais são excelentes oportunidades para conseguir ofertas ainda melhores do que as encontradas no restante do ano."

In plain terms: shoppers hunting value now know that promotional windows beat everyday prices, and they are timing purchases accordingly.

How much will Americans actually gain?

Visa Business and Economics Insights estimates U.S. retail sales will grow 4.5% over the holiday season versus the prior year. Strip out inflation, and the real expansion drops to 1.1%.

That gap is the story. Americans will spend more, but rising prices will keep limiting how many products and services they can actually buy. The nominal figure flatters the outcome; the real figure barely moves.

Adobe's projections cover online sales only, and the report does not break out how much of the 210% apparel jump reflects discounted prices pulling volume forward from other weeks rather than genuine incremental demand. That distinction matters for retailers counting on the surge.

What does this mean for November promotions?

The data reframes the big November discounts as a tool for essential spending, not just Christmas shopping. Retailers that treat Black Friday purely as a gifting moment risk missing the household-stocking demand Adobe identifies. For marketers, the takeaway is simple: value messaging on everyday essentials, not just gift guides, will decide this season.