Adobe Forecasts U.S. Online Holiday Spend to Exceed $275 Billion

That behavior changes how marketers should read the season. A shopper responding to a discount may be replenishing household goods rather than ticking off a gift list. Promotional strategy, merchandising and inventory planning all look different when the purchase motivation is practical rather than sentimental.

The trend also carries margin implications. Discount-driven purchases of everyday items tend to favor retailers who can absorb price cuts at scale, and it puts pressure on brands to justify full-price purchases outside the promotional calendar.

For marketers, the $275 billion forecast offers a clear benchmark. Campaigns that treat holiday shoppers purely as gift-buyers risk missing the segment using seasonal discounts to offset the cost of essentials. Messaging that acknowledges both motivations — celebratory and practical — aligns more closely with how consumers say they will actually spend.

Adobe's data suggests the holiday season now functions as a broader consumption event, not only a gifting occasion. Retailers and brands that plan accordingly, by pricing essentials competitively and timing promotions to match stock-up behavior, stand to capture a larger share of the record spend.