Holiday Shoppers Expect Less for More This Season

By Amara Osei

Some of the latest holiday projections suggest consumer spending could drop this season, according to forecasts summarized in the original report — and even forecasters who still predict growth concede that shoppers remain under financial pressure.

That split matters. When the optimists and the pessimists agree on the underlying condition — a stretched consumer — the disagreement is only about degree, not direction.

What do shoppers expect this holiday season?

The report's central finding is captured in its own framing: "Shoppers expect less for more this holiday season. That could mean a sales decline."

Two claims sit inside that sentence, and both deserve scrutiny.

First, expectations have shifted. Consumers anticipate receiving less while paying more — an inversion of the value equation that retailers have spent years defending through promotions and loyalty programs.

Second, the consequence is not yet certain. The report says a decline "could" follow, not that one will. The projection is conditional, and the source does not specify which forecast models produced the downside numbers.

Do any forecasters still see growth?

Yes — and this is the caveat that accompanies every bearish headline. As the source states, "even those that predict growth recognize consumers are pressured."

In other words, the growth cases are not arguments that shoppers feel flush. They are arguments that spending will hold despite the strain. That is a weaker foundation for a strong holiday than a headline growth number alone would suggest.

What the source does not say is equally telling. It does not name the forecasting firms behind the projections. It does not quantify the size of the potential decline. It does not break out categories, channels or income cohorts. Any precision beyond "spending could drop" would be inference, not reporting.

What should marketers watch?

• The gap between expectation and behavior. Consumers saying they expect less for more does not guarantee they will spend less. Watch the delta between stated intent and register receipts.
• Which forecast breaks first. Growth projections assume pressured consumers keep spending. A decline scenario tests that assumption directly.
• Category exposure. The source gives no segment-level detail, so treat any category-specific claims from vendors this season with extra caution.

The takeaway

Both camps of forecasters agree on one thing: the consumer is squeezed. The open question is whether spending bends or breaks — and the answer will define retailers' margins long after the decorations come down.