76% of Marketers Expect Holiday Revenue to Rise in 2026

Seventy-six percent of brand and retailer professionals expect their 2026 holiday revenue to increase between 1% and 31% or more over 2025, according to D+ Research's new report, "The 2026 guide to holiday marketing strategies."

The report draws on a survey of 90 brand and retailer professionals plus interviews with marketing executives at A-Frame Brands, Mastercard and Ritual. It marks a shift from last year's holiday study, when brands and retailers held conservative expectations for 2025 holiday revenue.

The pessimism case is nearly empty. Zero respondents — 0% — said they expect their 2026 holiday revenue to fall by more than 11% compared with 2025.

What's tempering the optimism?

Inflation tops the list of concerns among the executives interviewed.

"It is getting brutal out there," said Ari Bloom, founder and CEO of brand incubator A-Frame Brands. "Costs are getting so high, and the economy is soft right now, and probably will get softer as we get into the fall. The cost issue is going to be really hard for a lot of smaller companies to absorb with heavy discounting."

Bloom also flagged the political calendar. "When you're in an election year, you've got a different dynamic because there's a lot of discussion around inflation," he said. "People will have a sentiment of whether the environment is inflationary, whether things are too expensive or there's an affordability crisis."

Laura Brodie, chief growth officer at supplement company Ritual, shares the concern about consumer confidence but not the caution. "Even with the state of the economy and consumer sentiment sitting at a pretty low point in history, I'm bullish," Brodie said. "Spending is resilient. It's less about what happens in holiday spending growth year over year, which will probably be modest. Where the spend actually gets allocated will be interesting to see."

Will discounts go deeper?

No. Eighty-one percent of brand and retailer pros expect their 2026 holiday discounts to stay about the same as their 2025 discounts.

Instead of cutting prices further, brands are turning to promotional mechanics like bundling and gift-with-purchase offers.

"We've been talking a lot about bundling versus discounting because holiday is a time when people will buy multiples," Bloom said. "They might buy the same gift for three different people, and they may buy it for themselves to try on top of it."

Gift-with-purchase can also convert gift buyers into repeat customers, Bloom said: "It is a really good way to get people who are buying a gift to keep something for themselves as part of the transaction."

Brodie pointed to the economics: acquisition costs spike during the holidays, so rewarding existing customers is the cheaper play. "Offering exclusivity to existing customers and to pull people back with something that feels unique, a compelling gift with purchase or seasonal drop. … The cost of acquisition is high during holiday, so being able to tap an existing audience can be cost-effective."

Ritual has put that into practice through brand partnerships. "We've partnered with like-minded brands like [skincare brand] Osea and swapped gift with purchases," Brodie said.

Where will the spend go?

Brodie expects a cultural shift in what consumers buy. "We're seeing a big cultural shift towards nostalgia, being intentional and spending time with family," she said. "I anticipate people will gravitate towards gifts as experiences or things that feel personal rather than mass purchased."

Susan Grossman, evp of consumer acquisition and engagement services at Mastercard, said in an email that brands will invest in rewards, exclusive access and experiences that extend beyond the holidays. "The more sustainable approach is to think about value more broadly. That could be a personalized offer, exclusive access, relevant recommendations, a seamless experience, or an incentive timed to the right moment," Grossman said.

"But to do that, you need better signals and smart personalization," she added. "Instead of blanket discounting, they can create value for the consumers who need an extra nudge while continuing to build long-term loyalty with those who already have an affinity for the brand."

The takeaway in plain words: marketers are betting on steady revenue, flat discounts and smarter perks — not deeper price cuts — to carry the 2026 holiday season.