El Niño Could Split Brazil's Ice Cream Market: +18.5% North, -19.7% South

Ice cream sales in Brazil's Northeast could rise 18.5% under a strong El Niño in 2027, while sales in the South could fall 19.7%. The forecast comes from Scanntech, a company specialized in retail data, which cross-referenced sales figures with weather records to measure how climate drives consumption.

The divergence matters for manufacturers and supermarkets. One national supply chain now faces two opposite demand curves. The same weather event that fills freezers in one region empties them in another.

What do the regional numbers show?

Scanntech's projections, built for a scenario in which El Niño arrives with greater intensity in 2027, break down by category and region:

• Northeast: ice cream sales up 18.5%; ice sales up 18.3%
• South: ice cream sales down 19.7%; ice sales down 14.8%
• North: ice cream sales up 14.9%; coconut water sales up 14.6%
• Southeast and Center-West: no statistically significant impact identified in the categories analyzed

The pattern is consistent. Heat-linked categories gain in the warmer northern and northeastern states and lose in the cooler, wetter South.

How did Scanntech build the model?

The company crossed sales data from 2022 through July 2026 with meteorological records. The method isolates the statistical relationship between weather variables and purchase volumes, category by category.

The headline finding is precise: each additional degree of temperature is associated with a 3.21% increase in beverage sales. Rain works in the opposite direction. Rainfall above 50 millimeters within three days correlates with a 13.1% drop in volume sold.

Why does this matter for retailers and brands?

The numbers give planners a concrete lever. A 3.21% sales lift per degree means heat waves are, in effect, demand events that can be forecast from weather services and priced into inventory. The 13.1% drop tied to heavy rain works the same way in reverse, and it affects store traffic as much as thirst.

The regional split complicates national distribution. A manufacturer shipping one assortment nationwide would overstock the South and understock the Northeast in a strong El Niño year. Regional allocation, promotion calendars and freezer capacity would each need separate plans.

The study also widens the lens beyond ice cream. Coconut water, ice and beverages all respond to temperature and rain in measurable, different degrees. That turns weather from a background condition into a quantified input for demand planning.

If El Niño does arrive with the projected intensity in 2027, retailers with regional models will act earlier than competitors relying on national averages. Scanntech's data suggests the gap between the two approaches could reach close to 20 percentage points in a single category.