Walmart and Target Bet on Storytelling, Not Price, for Holiday Season

Walmart grew revenue 5.9% year over year to $187.9 billion in Q2, and Target answered with a 5.3% net sales increase to $26.5 billion — two big-box rivals now entering a holiday season that analysts say is the real proving ground for their competing brand strategies.

Both retailers are spending the fourth quarter trying to redefine how consumers see them, not just close sales. Walmart for the past year and a half has been building out its "Who Knew?" platform, designed to shift shopper perceptions by highlighting a more on-trend assortment and better deals than people might expect. Target is trying to recapture its "Tar-zhay" magic — the cheap-but-chic allure that eroded during bumpy post-pandemic years, when the brand got bogged down in culture wars backlash and lackluster store presentation.

"For Target, they're really trying to reassert their difference," said Taylre Stumpf, a retail consultant at Kantar who specializes in Target and mass channel retailers. "Walmart's is more of that nostalgia, that reappraisal: 'You know us, but now see us differently.'"

How do the campaigns work?

Walmart brings "Who Knew?" to the holidays with a riff on "The Muppet Christmas Carol." Walton Goggins plays Ebenezer Scrooge alongside a Muppet cast that includes Kermit the Frog and Miss Piggy. Miss Piggy will promote trendy fashion items as part of "A Who Knew Carol," as will content creators, Walmart Chief Marketing Officer William White previously told sister publication Marketing Dive.

Target anchors its campaign on a gifting academy that helps customers find the right present for different people in their lives. D'Arcy Carden plays a wise-cracking expert who leads the institution. The "Holiday Academy of Giftology" runs different departments and faculty members specializing in toys and gifts for people who claim they don't want anything.

"It uses a construct of education and curriculum to come up with new ways to solve some of those typical holiday gifting problems that we all experience," Target Chief Brand Officer Michelle Mesenburg said at a holiday preview event for press in October.

Why storytelling instead of deals?

The campaigns share a structural logic. Both use colorful characters and fictional settings to tout product assortment and speedy delivery. That marks a break from the retailers' past practice of running fragmented holiday marketing built around specific seasonal moments like Black Friday. A single narrative gives consumers a greater sense of consistency, and it differentiates in a category that has overskewed toward deals and promotions amid persistent inflation.

"Rather than shouting price, they're shouting that storyline of, trust us, [we have] the best gifts," said Stumpf.

The convergence adds a new dimension to the rivalry. Walmart's "Who Knew?" is part of an evolution as the retailer wins over higher-income shoppers and revamps segments like apparel. In presentation and product focus, Walmart now looks a bit more like Target.

"The mass channel, which is Target and Walmart, they're both fighting for that same high income, still careful shopper, but using the same tools," said Stumpf. "We just see value now as a type of table stakes, so both retailers now have to get creative on how to connect with each shopper."

Who holds the advantage?

Scale favors Walmart. It operates more than 4,600 brick-and-mortar stores in the U.S. Target has fewer than half that. Walmart's U.S. comparable sales rose 2.6% in Q2. Target posted comparable sales growth of 3.8% and a 3.6% traffic increase for the period, and raised its full-year guidance around its Q2 earnings report in August. Performance has been on the upswing so far in 2026 following a CEO transition.

"Walmart has definitely been giving Target a run for their money," said Stumpf. "I think the last several years of Target underperforming, Walmart has taken advantage of that and has done very well."

Target's edge, per Stumpf, lies in personalization and curation. It connects popular online items into an in-store presence and understands the tastes of a specific type of millennial shopper. Omnichannel is another potential advantage: visual elements of the academy-themed ads carry into physical stores and online.

Target earlier this year overhauled its creator programs to make them more well-rounded. Its holiday plans leverage Club Target, aimed at smaller and mid-sized creators on platforms like TikTok, plus an exclusive partnership with LTK centered on bigger-name influencers.

"Target is really the only retailer I'm seeing right now that does a great job of blending the whole unified experience through their different tiers of creators," said Stumpf.

Will cautious shoppers spend?

Consumer outlooks for the holidays are mixed. Deloitte's consumer surveys point to spending on retail goods remaining robust. Kantar ShopperScape data shared by Stumpf indicates 16% of shoppers plan to spend less this year due to macroeconomic stresses — roughly one in six.

That caution raises the stakes on Target's strategy. "Target knows it can't outprice Walmart. If Walmart's already trying to take pages out of its playbook with the storytelling … all Target really has left is personalization and curation for its shoppers," said Stumpf.

With Walmart borrowing Target's storytelling playbook and Target leaning on personalization it cannot win on price alone, Q4 will show which brand-positioning bet converts cautious shoppers first.