Q4 Ad Spend Heads to $1.34 Trillion as Brands Pivot to Retail and Social

Global ad spending will reach $1.34 trillion in 2026, an 11.9% increase on 2025, as advertisers pour money into social media, video and retail media in the final quarter — while buyers brace for political shocks that could dent consumer confidence before Christmas, according to updated WARC forecasts.

The agency sector enters Q4 in relatively healthy condition. Publicis reported 5% organic growth and Havas 2.4% in Q3, while Omnicom charted 7.3% organic growth. WPP and Dentsu have yet to report their Q3 numbers. Notably, Omnicom did not offer Q4 guidance in its earnings call last week, despite its solid year-to-date figures.

What are the holdco chiefs saying?

Publicis Groupe CEO Arthur Sadoun expects similar momentum in the fourth quarter. "We could be close to 5% [organic growth] for the full year, if the macro economy gets better. That's what we're expecting," Sadoun told analysts during the firm's earnings call.

Adrien de Saint Hilaure, managing director and head of European media and gaming research at Bank of America, backs that read. "In general, the U.S. ad market backdrop seems to be very supportive at the minute," he said.

Luxury group Kering is leaning in. "We are increasing media investment [and] strengthening communication… in Q4," CFO Armelle Poulou told analysts, without providing specifics. Brands talking up Q4 investment without numbers is a pattern worth watching — promises here carry no budget figures attached.

Where is the money going?

WARC's global media forecast suggests the lion's share of final-quarter spend flows toward social media, video and search, with social spend growing 21.3% in Q3. In the U.K., the quarterly IPA Bellwether survey found 25.6% of marketers raised budgets in Q3 — the third consecutive quarterly increase — with digital video and direct marketing among the beneficiaries.

Six media buyers told Digiday clients are prioritizing video and performance channels as they compete for market share in the crucial final quarter. "In Q4, if it can't be measured, it isn't making the plan," said Sarah Engel, president of January Digital. "Brands are zeroed in on performance and on the dollars they can tie directly to results." That attitude, she said, is driving a torrent of spend toward Meta, TikTok and Amazon. Meta's ad revenues rose 26% in the third quarter, according to its latest earnings data. "Some brands are working hardest to protect social commerce, even trimming elsewhere where necessary," Engel added.

Retail media is pulling budget from linear TV. Scott Shamberg, president and CEO of indie agency Mile Marker, said clients raised retail media spending 20%-30% going into Q4, funded by pulling budget from linear TV and, to a lesser extent, search. "Retail media is the one that jumps off the charts," he said. TV, meanwhile, is likely to be 5%-7% down year-on-year, "particularly in categories such as travel, utilities, telco and leisure," said Alistair MacCallum, chief growth officer at MSQ-owned U.K. agency TodayTomorrow.

DTC and apparel budgets are climbing too. Ashley Muench, founder of Scène Studios, said her clients' ad budgets are up as much as 20% in Q4 year-on-year, mostly aimed at social platforms. "More people actively shopping also means more opportunities to attract new customers and retarget those already considering a purchase," Muench said.

Is the growth as solid as it looks?

The picture looks more fragile at ground level. A Madison & Wall analysis of Omnicom's results suggested much of its organic growth could be credited to cost-cutting — shuttering agencies and staff cuts — rather than underlying revenue increases. Takeaway: headline organic growth at one major holdco may reflect restructuring, not client demand.

U.S. advertisers are watching the midterm elections and their effect on consumer confidence. "Many clients are holding their breath until we know the outcome of the mid-terms," said Wendy Mason, senior director of strategy at indie agency Moroch. "With consumer confidence at near record lows, any change in the balance of power that gives people hope that financial relief may be coming is likely to give some consumers the confidence they need to spend as we go into holiday season."

MacCallum said "advertiser confidence remains resilient," but flagged external threats: the U.K. government's upcoming budget, high fuel prices and cost-of-living pressures pushing consumers to delay bookings or purchases later into the year.

Retail media growth is already slowing. David Dweck, president of GoFish Digital, said ad spend on Amazon, Walmart and Target keeps rising, but his company expected Amazon spend to grow 30% year-on-year and has seen increases closer to 7%. "We're anticipating lower spend this year than last year," he said, citing a "soft" Prime Day for some clients plus political uncertainty. Those figures could accelerate after the midterms — or signal that 2026's final act holds more than unending social ad spend rises.

What about news-avoidant voters?

Almost 40% of Americans actively avoid news due to media fatigue and distrust, yet Nexxen's research found 86% of "news-avoidant voters" plan to vote in the 2026 midterms, up from 80% who voted in 2024. The study also found:

• 91% passively encounter political content in non-traditional news environments such as social media, streaming and creator content;
• 41% said creators influence their opinions, ranked just behind friends and family;
• More than 35% use search engines or AI tools to shape their views.

Account and personnel moves

• Publicis named Scott Hagedorn CEO of Marcel, its agentic activation platform, with Sam Levine Archer as chief strategy officer.
• Omnicom's OMD won Lavazza's global media business; Dentsu won Diageo's trade and shopper account; indie Noble People won Coinbase's media AOR duties from Wavemaker; Gupta Media became paid media AOR for the USGA; SAMY won global influencer marketing duties for Grindr.
• David MacMillan stepped down as CEO of Havas CX shop Helia after 13 years; Crossmedia hired Avi Ben-Zvi from Dentsu as managing director and head of social; RPA hired Kevin Mayer from Mars Veterinary Health as president and COO; CMI Media Group promoted Leanne Smith to chief data privacy officer.

Brent Seaborn, co-founder and chief data science officer at Tunnl, frames the longer horizon: "When you talk about the 2028 [political ad] cycle, linear TV will still be important… Democrats will probably rely more on streaming and social media through their primary cycles. But it's going to be a mix of both." The 2028 presidential cycle will likely outspend this midterm election's record $11.6 billion.