Forrester's Wave report finds big media agencies look alike

Consolidation has made the 12 biggest media agency groups look more alike than ever, according to Forrester's latest Wave report on media management services — and that homogeneity may hand independents their best opening in years to take market share from the holding companies.

Jay Pattisall, Forrester VP and senior agency analyst and the report's principal author, called the convergence the report's biggest surprise. He pointed to deals like Omnicom's acquisition of IPG, Publicis' tech and segment purchases, and PE-backed moves like Wpromote's purchase of Giant Spoon.

"I was anticipating more differentiation in the marketplace as a result of the consolidations and acquisitions that took place," Pattisall said. "I was anticipating that we would see more separation, if you will. Once you look outside of scale and size, then the differences are much more subtle."

Who won, who lagged?

The report scored firms on 19 criteria, ranging from "agentic media buying" to "customer lifecycle management" and "global delivery strategy." Three firms earned "leader" status: the Big Three of Omnicom, Publicis and WPP.

The "strong performers" group was led by Dentsu and Havas, alongside Wpromote, PMG, Tinuiti and Horizon Media. The "contenders" category held Stagwell, Dept and Rise, a Quad agency.

Private-equity-backed Wpromote drew praise for pursuing agentic media buying and AEO abilities that "unites paid, owned, and earned authority-building with the measurement of visibility, sentiment, and traffic quality."

"We valued their measurement capabilities," Pattisall said. "We valued their precision capabilities. We valued their planning acumen, their optimization mindset — all of that plays very well for that group. It is the reason that you see relatively smaller organizations in the 'strong performer' grouping."

Wpromote, the highest-ranking independent for strength of offering, saw the moment as bigger than one report. CEO Andrea Bendzick said: "We're at a point where the industry is being reshaped by AI, new ways of reaching consumers and undeniable pressure to connect marketing investments to business outcomes. Independent agencies are well positioned to invest in those emerging areas and build their businesses around where clients are going, not where they've been."

Why did Publicis stay silent?

Publicis declined to comment and was the only agency group that sat out the report's outreach for insights and client-side input. With its string of client wins and poaches, some argue it doesn't need a Forrester report to court prospects — though parts of the industry read the move as arrogant.

The numbers still back the holdco. Forrester credited its media buying, principal media, and data and marketing sciences capabilities, and awarded Publicis the highest average strategy score: 4.4 out of 5. "These strengths plus its impressive media buying scale produce exceptional client media value," the report reads. But among the Big Three, Publicis scored the only 1s — the lowest mark — in agentic media buying, for lacking "tangible pilots, scaled partnerships, or evidence of meaningful client impact," and in SEO/AEO, which "lacks proactive experimentation."

Omnicom, validated by Forrester for its IPG acquisition and its status as the largest buyer domestically and globally, celebrated its leader ranking. Omnicom Media CEO Florian Adamski said in a statement: "In a marketplace being reshaped by AI, commerce and increasingly complex consumer journeys, we believe Forrester offers marketers a valuable perspective on what truly differentiates a leader: the ability to connect intelligence, technology, partnerships and buying power to deliver measurable business value."

On WPP, Pattisall noted that "their capabilities in the media marketplace exceed their perception in the marketplace," because Wall Street is still punishing the British holdco for prior management's missteps. "What their stock price is isn't going to drive their value to a client, and we're measuring the latter and not the former," he said.

WPP's Lauren Wetzel, global president of data and technology solutions, framed the competitive stakes: "What's increasingly clear is that competitive advantage in marketing will come not from who owns or accumulates the most data but from who can unlock the most intelligence from it and put that intelligence to work."

What dragged Stagwell down?

Stagwell, which many don't consider a holding company, averaged 2.4 in strategy and 2.44 in current offering. Only Rise (1.6 in strategy) and Dept (2.2 in strategy) scored lower.

Pattisall partly attributed the result to "the newness of the Stagwell Media strategy," calling it "a very calculated and appropriate move to put together compatible capabilities to go to market at the group level, if and when necessary." But it got dinged, he added, because "they are a relatively new organization. Their mission and their vision and their position in the marketplace is not as sharp as the others because they have not been operating and functioning at this level but for only a couple of months."

Missing from the list: S4 Capital's Monks and independents including Crossmedia and Brainlabs, which either fell below the $3.1 billion billings threshold or drew less interest from Forrester clients.

Political ad spending hit a record

Total political ad spending for the midterms ranged from $11.4 billion, per AdImpact — widely seen as the most reliable figure — to $11.9 billion from OpenSecrets, based on Federal Election Commission disclosure data. Either way it's a record, and it points to an even bigger 2028 presidential cycle. Whether candidates keep pouring money into 30-second TV spots remains an open question.

Deals, hires and a LiveRamp question

• Publicis closed its $2.2 billion acquisition of LiveRamp after FTC stipulations requiring neutrality, since competing agencies and clients use the service. Havas said it's sticking with LiveRamp, as is Dentsu for now, while Omnicom and WPP offer their own services. Marketer Liquid Death has already moved on.
• Horizon Global, the Horizon Media–Havas joint venture, won global media duties for Harley-Davidson after a review.
• Stagwell hired Kate Richling from S4 Capital's Monks, where she was global CMO, as chief brand and communications officer for Stagwell Media, its beefed-up iteration of Assembly.

Jitendra Kumar, head of commercial, advertising, at Hightouch, captured the LiveRamp dilemma: "The question CMOs are asking isn't whether LiveRamp still works. It's whether they want their customer data running through infrastructure owned by an agency holding company that competes with their other agencies. A neutrality pledge is a promise; neutrality by design is an architecture. The deal didn't create that shift, but it has definitely sped it up."

The takeaway: when the giants converge, the value shifts to whoever — holdco or independent — can prove sharper differentiation fastest.