Blue Wave Midterms Threaten Ad Tech's Hot M&A Streak

Affle paid $420 million for Perion and Chord acquired Zenlytic for $5 million this week — deals that AdExchanger's team now frames as a possible test of whether ad tech consolidation can survive a Democratic sweep of the midterm elections.

The numbers behind those transactions sit at the tail end of a hot year for ad tech and media M&A. DoorDash and Instacart, Publicis and LiveRamp, Nielsen and DoubleVerify, Skydance and Paramount, and Stagwell and Freestar all produced blockbuster consolidation stories in 2025. The trend, according to AdExchanger, might now be due for a cooldown.

The reason is political. The conventional thinking holds that Republican administrations — particularly the Trump administration's DOJ and FTC — are friendlier to mergers between big companies, while Democratic administrations apply more antitrust scrutiny. Regulatory concerns have hung over most of this year's major acquisitions.

What does the record show?

The pattern is already visible in completed deals. The FTC approved Publicis's acquisition of LiveRamp, but on the condition that Publicis ensures neutrality for LiveRamp's other customers. Skydance's Paramount deal faced accusations from Democrats that the companies were bribing President Trump to secure approval. Nielsen, meanwhile, faces its own antitrust lawsuit that is gaining steam.

The clearest signal came from DoorDash CEO Tony Xu. He confirmed that he backed away from a bid to acquire Instacart in 2021 over a perception that the Biden administration would block the deal.

What does the midterm result change?

The midterms gave Democrats control of the House, the Senate and Congress's vast investigative power. That raises two practical questions for dealmakers. First, whether the lame duck portion of the second Trump term will prove less conducive to consolidation. Second, whether this week's activity — Affle at $420 million, Chord at $5 million — represents the last gasp of a dying trend or whether time remains for more dealmaking.

The AdExchanger team weighs both outcomes, which means practitioners should treat the lame duck window as the operative variable: any deal that needs federal clearance faces a narrowing clock.

The advertising mix shifts too

The elections produced a second, quieter change for media buyers. Sports fans will get a break from the $12 billion onslaught of political advertising that filled the cycle.

That inventory does not stay empty. AdExchanger expects more room for a $7 billion blitz of gambling and prediction market ads.

That shift comes with a cost, according to AdExchanger's James Hercher. He recently wrote an opinion column arguing that the live sports ad experience has felt extra exploitative lately — what he calls the enshittification of sports. His position: pro leagues and broadcasters are putting marketing dollars above fan enjoyment and even player safety. He supports the argument with extensive evidence.

For ad tech and media executives, the combined message is direct. Deal flow built on a merger-friendly regulator now faces a House, a Senate and congressional investigators controlled by the party that spent this year's biggest deals accusing acquirers of currying political favor. Anyone with a transaction in the pipeline has a lame duck window to close it — and a gambling ad category with $7 billion of spend ready to fill the political inventory gap.