Elevated grocery prices and anticipated holiday financial stress are already making shoppers more selective about which brands earn a spot in their carts, according to executives speaking at ADWEEK House Advertising HQ.

ADWEEK editor-in-chief Ryan Joe hosted the panel, co-hosted with Ibotta, featuring Chris Dungan, VP of client partnerships at Ibotta, and Krystle Rocci, integrated strategy director of Pernod Ricard. The discussion centered on how data-driven media spend can help brands adapt to changing shopping behaviors.

How does first-party data change promotion measurement?

When Pernod Ricard needs to move large volumes of product quickly, a promotion is often the mechanism, Dungan explained. Ibotta's first-party data lets the spirits company identify and attribute what changed consumers' buying behavior during a promotion.

"It allows you to better measure and attribute the success of the campaign," Dungan said.

Rocci stressed looking beyond impression count to judge whether an ad resonates.

"Are they seeing an ad in the right moment, in the right mindset, to get them to perform an intended action, and is it driving them down that purchase funnel through the journey? It's really about hitting them in the moments that matter, which for spirits, is super important," she said.

What does the earlier shopping season mean for brands?

Consumers this year are shopping earlier instead of condensing all their purchasing into the couple of weeks before the holiday.

"Consumers are elongating that purchasing period. They're trying to flatten that consumption curve," Dungan said.

The challenge for brands is intercepting consumers within that longer decision path. "The timing is getting earlier and earlier, so how can we get in their mind before they're at the shelf or at the cart, so that when they do actually make the decision, they're choosing one of our products," Rocci said.

What turns a promo buyer into a loyal one?

Promotions attract first-time or lapsed buyers, but the true loyalty test is whether the consumer chooses the brand the next time they buy the category, Dungan said.

Building that relationship can take several forms, Rocci added. "Whether that is the bottle or the flavor profile or the price point or the continued re-engaging content to give them meaning around that brand, I think that's all helpful," she said.

Beyond repeat purchases, Pernod wants buyers to explore its full portfolio. "Sometimes our brands can complement one another. For example, Absolut and Kahlua partner together on the espresso martini," Rocci said.

Dungan and Rocci both argued for individual brand leaders working together for the good of the organization.

"If we can ultimately think about growing baskets and collective equity for the organization, making consumers buy more products overall, it benefits that organization meaningfully," Dungan said.

Leveraging promotions, scaling purchases across multiple products and driving greater incremental sales over a tight period is "messaging that lands with CFOs as well as CMOs," Dungan concluded — a framing that gives marketers a financial argument as the extended holiday season puts budgets under scrutiny.