Publishers Sell 50-85% More Subscriptions to Smaller Audiences

The typical publisher worldwide now reaches a fifth fewer people per month than in 2019, yet sells 50% to 85% more subscriptions per quarter to that smaller audience, according to Greg Piechota, researcher-in-residence at INMA. With the U.S. midterms a week away, news publishers are betting big news moments can close that gap and convert casual readers into durable subscriber relationships.

The stakes have risen because social media and search send fewer people to news sites every year. "Growth depends on attracting and converting casual readers, and that is getting harder," Piechota said. "A big news event is one of the few remaining moments when casual readers come to a news brand on their own, so what happens in those weeks matters more than it used to."

What does the midterm test change for publishers?

In North America, the typical publisher already reaches a fifth fewer people than at the 2024 election peak. Even so, subscriptions keep growing — a paradox Piechota says defines the current market. The 2024 U.S. presidential election moved sales: the typical North American publisher sold 43% more subscriptions than in 2019, and 17% more than in the 2020 election quarter, according to INMA's analysis of 3,018 news brands, 79 of them in North America.

Strength is uneven. National and metro publishers in North America grew subscriber bases by roughly 10% in 2024, in line with the global average. Large regional newspaper chains failed to retain subscribers acquired through election promotions, contributing to a 16% decline in the typical North American publisher's subscriber base from its early 2024 peak.

Reuters offers the clearest current proof point. On Monday, new subscriptions rose 50%, primarily in the U.S. and around coverage of the Brazil election and its live blog, said Josh London, head of Reuters Professional, who oversees the direct-to-consumer and direct-to-professional businesses. Reuters launched its paywall two years ago. "We expect a similar pattern around the Israel election this week. That demand for fast, reliable coverage for the U.S. midterms, we would expect to be a driver as well," London said.

Reuters is leaving its dynamic paywall unchanged but is investing in coverage: a U.S. newsroom expansion with new hires on White House, national security and investigative teams; a content bundle partnership with the USA Today Network; polls through an Ipsos partnership; and a Washington, D.C. "war room" covering key races. "Always, but especially with elections, readers turn to Reuters for trusted, unbiased election news at speed, and that trust and that independent, non-national coverage translates into new subscriptions," London said.

Open access, apps or new tools — which playbook wins?

Established subscription businesses adjust paywalls around major news events, either opening coverage to reach more readers or tightening access to drive conversions.

The New York Times is taking the open-access route again: midterm coverage is free in the Times app, with no paywall until results are clear, a Times spokesperson said. App downloaders get reporting, explainers and poll trackers. The goal is retention rather than direct conversion.

Politico is rolling out a unified mobile app globally, replacing its two previous apps for the U.S. and Europe, and bringing free and subscriber-only coverage together. "The midterms give us an opportunity to demonstrate why Politico's journalism matters to the people who rely on it for their work, both in the lead-up to election night and long afterwards," said Cally Baute, chief commercial officer at Politico. On Nov. 3, five of Politico's top political journalists will provide live election analysis on its website, app and YouTube. "We'll carry that approach into other consequential elections, including France's presidential contest in 2027," Baute said.

Newer subscription businesses treat the midterms as a live experiment. The Hill, which launched Hill Insider this summer and converts more than 75% of trials to paid, now gives subscribers access to Decision Desk HQ election data tools — polls, local races and prediction models — through an expanded partnership. CNN, whose All Access subscription launched last year, expanded to the U.K. and Canada ahead of the midterms, sees elections as a "major subscription driver," according to a person familiar with its strategy, and has run a full marketing campaign across consumer touchpoints since the primaries. The Wall Street Journal uses Doppler News AI to track trends across millions of social videos, podcasts and news segments, surfacing voter concerns traditional polls might miss for subscribers.

What happens after election night?

The real test arrives when the spike fades. "The election is the hook, not the habit. The work after a political spike should be focused on breadth: onboarding that steers people to other news, sport, lifestyle and newsletters, and the bundled non-news products, such as games," Piechota said.

Elsewhere in the ecosystem: a News/Media Alliance spokesperson said the organization had heard nothing from Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg by the Oct. 26 deadline set in its letter demanding withdrawal of terms-of-service changes due Nov. 20; People Inc.'s social-video sponsorship revenue grew 625% year over year; Politico's audience fell 49.1% in September year over year; publisher eCPMs on Macs dropped 20% after Apple's restrictions, per Aditude; and Vox's website audience declined 36% while its social video views grew 86%. Ten Norwegian media organizations have asked the Oslo District Court to block Meta's new commercial terms; Vox launched its first app to grow paid memberships; The Verge plans an app for 2027; and Axel Springer CEO Mathias Döpfner pitched a deal to buy TikTok's European arm, the Financial Times reported.

Whether midterm readers convert into habits, or churn like the regional chains' 2024 cohorts, will define the next quarter's subscriber numbers.