Publisher Revenue Grows Despite Traffic Declines, But Q4 Comps Loom

Reuters grew organic revenue 12% year over year in Q3 2026, but roughly $19 million of that came from transactional generative AI content licensing — money that will not repeat. The figure, disclosed by Thomson Reuters CFO Gary Bischoping, captures the central tension of this quarter's publisher earnings: four of the largest media companies grew revenue despite falling traffic and AI disruption, and all four now face harder year-over-year comparisons in Q4.

Bischoping put it plainly on the earnings call: "We expect Reuters growth to be flattish year-over-year in the fourth quarter due to lapping $5 million of transactional AI licensing revenue from the prior year period, along with tougher comps at agency and in portions of the professional business." Excluding transactional AI licensing from both periods, Reuters grew 7% in Q3. Reuters has disclosed AI deals with Meta and Microsoft, signed October 2024, and with Amazon in May 2026; a Reuters executive previously told Digiday other undisclosed deals exist.

What did People Inc. report?

People Inc.'s licensing revenue grew 49% year over year in Q3 2026, and overall digital revenue grew 2%. CFO Tim Quinn cautioned on the Nov. 3 call: "In Q4, those growth rates will slow some as we lap the Meta AI deal that we announced last Q4." He projected roughly 20% licensing growth in Q4 and low- to mid-single-digit digital revenue growth.

Most of the licensing growth came from non-AI deals. Apple News has been a "great success," Quinn said, alongside distribution deals with Yahoo and MSN. About 15 People Inc. brands now generate licensing revenue. Quinn stayed optimistic on AI: "They will continue to evolve and there's a big place for our content. There's increasingly a place for recency — meaning new content — in that marketplace."

The traffic picture is darker. People Inc.'s digital advertising fell 8% year over year, and core sessions (unique visitors to its core brands) dropped 26% — its steepest decline yet, after a 22% drop last quarter. AI Overviews now appear on over 90% of the Google Search queries the company tracks, Quinn said.

How is The New York Times positioned?

The Times added about 420,000 net digital-only subscribers in Q3, bringing its total to 13.76 million. Digital ad growth slowed from 20.7% in Q2 to 12% in Q3. CEO Meredith Kopit Levien told investors on Nov. 4: "The comps get tougher as the year goes on. Q4 is our biggest quarter in ads this year and last year. I'll remind you we grew 25%." That 25% gain reflected structural ad-supply expansion in 2025, which sets a high baseline. The company forecasts high-single-digit to low-double-digit digital ad growth in Q4, plus 12% to 15% digital subscription revenue growth.

Kopit Levien said AI search is not hurting the business because the model is "driven a lot by subscriber engagement," though the Times is not "immune to that impact." New ad supply will continue, but "more incremental and more across the portfolio."

Why does News Corp show a split?

Dow Jones — owner of The Wall Street Journal, Barron's and MarketWatch — grew revenue 8% year over year, with digital advertising up 12%, matching The Times. News Media, which includes The Sun, The Times of London and the New York Post, fell 1%, with ad revenue down 2%. CEO Robert Thomson said News Media "continues to navigate complex market pressures," and warned "that search landscape will change dramatically with the advent of agentic AI." Segment revenue declined to $540 million. The Sun's monthly uniques fell 26% in September; the New York Post's digital audience fell 11%. CFO Lavanya Chandrashekar expects "strong revenue performance" from Dow Jones next quarter and "similar trends" in News Media.

What is the wider context?

Matt Prohaska, CEO of Prohaska Consulting, questioned the durability of AI licensing: "The short-term revenue win that publishers got by striking LLM deals helps for a quarter or four to eight, but it's often at the expense of lost audience and inventory."

The pressure is industry-wide. Digital Content Next found a 26% reduction in unique visitors to member sites from 2023 to 2025, in an amicus brief filed against OpenAI and Microsoft. The Reuters Institute reports 38% of people now use AI weekly to find information, up from 11% in 2024; weekly AI tool use overall reached 51%, nearly triple the 18% of 2024. As one-time licensing windfalls mature, publishers' Q4 forecasts — flat at Reuters, slowing licensing at People, decelerating ads at The Times — will test whether subscriptions and non-session revenue can keep outpacing the loss of search-driven traffic.