Jordan Pullback Threatens $550 Million at Foot Locker

By Elena Vasquez

What does Jordan’s pullback mean for Foot Locker?

Nike’s Jordan pullback could cost Foot Locker roughly $550 million in sales from spring 2027, BNP Paribas Equity Research senior analyst Laurent Vasilescu estimates. Vasilescu’s estimate assumes Jordan revenue falls 30% next year and Foot Locker cannot replace the lost volume.

Analysts estimate Jordan represents roughly 25% of Foot Locker revenue. Foot Locker reported a 3.6% decline in comparable-store sales (comps) in the second quarter (Q2). Jordan remains central to the retailer’s turnaround, although Nike’s latest results show the brand needs more time to recover.

Nike’s earnings earlier this month signaled a longer turnaround for the activewear giant and increased the risk to wholesale partners. Jordan generated $8.7 billion for Nike in fiscal 2024.

Jordan revenue now sits about 20% below that benchmark and declined by a mid-teens percentage in Nike’s latest quarter. Nike plans to reduce retro Jordan launches because the market has excess inventory.

“We’ve discussed it with our wholesale partners,” Nike CEO Elliott Hill said earlier this month. “Together, we will restore balance to the marketplace to create a foundation for more profitable and sustainable growth.”

How much financial pressure does the reset create?

Dick’s Sporting Goods bought Foot Locker for $2.4 billion last year. In August, Dick’s sharply cut the retailer’s full-year outlook. Foot Locker now expects comps to range from flat to a 2% decline, compared with prior expectations of up to 3% growth.

“If Jordan is down 30% next year, [Dick’s] has a hole to fill at Foot Locker, which we don’t think can be replaced by other brands due to the [average selling price] differential,” BNP Paribas Equity Research senior analyst Laurent Vasilescu wrote Monday.

Vasilescu estimates Jordan’s wholesale business with Foot Locker at approximately $1.85 billion. Foot Locker is Jordan’s largest wholesale partner. Foot Locker could buy more from partners such as Vans and New Balance, but their lower prices require higher sales volume to replace Jordan’s revenue.

What can Foot Locker do about Jordan and costs?

BMO Capital Markets analyst Kelly Crago has a cautious view of Foot Locker’s ability to deliver positive comps in fiscal 2027 (FY27). He estimates the Jordan pullback will weigh on FY27 comps by 250 to 550 basis points, meaning 2.5 to 5.5 percentage points.

“Given expected [Foot Locker] weakness, we believe [Dick’s] may need to rethink FL’s cost structure,” Crago wrote Monday. Crago raised shutting Foot Locker’s European business, selling WSS or closing Champs as possible responses.

Foot Locker’s European business accounts for about 20% of sales but carries a roughly $115 million drag on profitability. Closing it would remove a sizable revenue operation while reducing that profitability burden.

“Whatever [Dick’s] chooses to do, we see a smaller [Foot Locker] as a further incremental risk to [Nike],” Crago said. Foot Locker is Jordan’s largest wholesale partner, making any contraction relevant to Nike’s distribution network.

Starting in spring 2027, Foot Locker must replace Jordan volume with lower-priced products sold at higher unit volumes, according to Vasilescu. Dick’s must also address the cost structure Crago flagged.