Black Friday 2026: 51% of Brazilian Capital Consumers Plan to Shop

Only 51% of consumers in Brazil's state capitals plan to shop during Black Friday 2026, a drop of 37 percentage points from 2023. The survey, conducted by the National Confederation of Retail Managers (CNDL) and the Credit Protection Service (SPC Brasil) with Offerwise between October 7 and 19, 2026, shows a shopper base that is more cautious, more indebted and more suspicious of digital fraud.

Another 31% of respondents have not decided whether they will take part, while 19% state they will not buy anything during the period, the researchers found.

What still drives participation?

Among those who intend to shop, 70% see Black Friday as a chance to buy products they already need at lower prices. Another 37% plan to bring forward Christmas gift purchases. The average planned spend is R$ 1,053, according to the survey.

The pattern is clear. Purchase intent now hinges on genuine savings and on organizing year-end expenses rather than on impulse.

How strong is the fear of fraud?

Fear of fraud shapes the 2026 edition. The survey found 65% of consumers worry about becoming victims of fraud during Black Friday, including theft of banking information and card cloning.

Digital channels still dominate despite that fear. Among respondents who plan to participate, 81% intend to buy online, the data shows.

When choosing where to buy, two factors tie at the top, each cited by 41% of participants:

• The lowest price after comparison shopping
• Free shipping offers

What role does existing debt play?

Existing installment commitments weigh heavily on new purchases. Among consumers who plan to shop, 57% are still paying off earlier installments, and 22% carry three or more such commitments, the survey found. Buying on promotion now happens alongside managing debts already assumed and assessing real payment capacity.

The same scrutiny extends to corporate purchasing, according to Caique Pedrilli, CEO of Hakuna Matata Brindes. "O planejamento de compras ganhou importância diante de consumidores mais atentos ao valor e à utilidade dos produtos. Essa análise também é relevante para as empresas na organização de suas aquisições corporativas", he said.

How was the research conducted?

The survey ran in two stages, both online. The first stage covered 1,133 consumers across all 27 Brazilian state capitals, with a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points. The second stage covered 601 participants who declared Black Friday purchase intent, with a 4-point margin of error. Both figures assume a 95% confidence level, and results were weighted by gender, age, income and education.

What does this mean for brands?

Black Friday remains present in consumption intentions, but participation now depends on available budget, perceived advantage in offers and trust in the purchase channel, the researchers conclude. Price comparison and an honest reading of existing financial commitments have become the defining behaviors of the 2026 shopper. Retailers that lead with verifiable prices, free shipping and fraud-safe checkout will meet the consumer where the survey says the consumer already stands.

By Elena Vasquez